There has been a lot of frenzied action since yesterday's Fed rate cuts.
Personally, I've activated an account with OANDA. They allow very small accounts and any size of trade. Also, you can trade less common currency pairs at reasonable spreads. For example, during normal trading, the spread on the EURUSD is usually 0.9 pips. That's great!
Anyhow, more experiments under way.I've got some interesting ideas that I can try safely using OANDA. If I strike it rich, I'll reveal semi-cryptic clues...
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Bottom Spotting the USD/CAD
Down and down it goes, where it will stop, nobody knows.
Just how low can the USD go compared to the CAD? Parity is an option. Below parity is an option. However, there have to be some fundamentals that come into play here. The amount of trade between the USA and Canada is huge!
Traditionally, the USD has always sat above the CAD.
Anyway, I'm not sure parity or below is realistic. I'm starting to dip my toe into this market. I've got a small stake which represents a "water mark" to help me gauge future expectations. Somewhere, presumably within the next 500 pips, we should find the bottom. From there, we should see lots of volatility and false starts, allowing for profit in the short term.
It should also provide for profits in the long term once the USDCAD starts trending towards a more appropriate historical level. Unless of course there is a large fundamental change happening. That's possible, but flying under the radar still.
Just how low can the USD go compared to the CAD? Parity is an option. Below parity is an option. However, there have to be some fundamentals that come into play here. The amount of trade between the USA and Canada is huge!
Traditionally, the USD has always sat above the CAD.
Anyway, I'm not sure parity or below is realistic. I'm starting to dip my toe into this market. I've got a small stake which represents a "water mark" to help me gauge future expectations. Somewhere, presumably within the next 500 pips, we should find the bottom. From there, we should see lots of volatility and false starts, allowing for profit in the short term.
It should also provide for profits in the long term once the USDCAD starts trending towards a more appropriate historical level. Unless of course there is a large fundamental change happening. That's possible, but flying under the radar still.
The EUR/TRY Carry Trade
I'm dabbling in the EURTRY carry trade situation.
Due to the difference in interest rates you can pocket a bit of change as long as you maintain your short position. Obviously, however, nothing is free. The EURTRY market has a lot of volatility complete with sharp price spikes on the order of 1500 pips!
This means that you cannot leave a position completely open or you will risk the value of your entire account. However, it's possible that such a volatile market will make it impossible to execute a stop loss at the exact point you want or at the point spread you expect. Danger, Will Robinson, danger.
On the other hand there is no guarantee that another spike will happen in the short term future. You can certainly place a short sell order way up in the stratosphere and if you are lucky enough to grab it you might be lucky. It's also possible the spike will be much higher than a previous spike and you'll get burned. Alternately, the spike price could represent a new trading range and not offer you a large profit. There are no certainties - only risks and potential rewards.
Shall we play a game?
Due to the difference in interest rates you can pocket a bit of change as long as you maintain your short position. Obviously, however, nothing is free. The EURTRY market has a lot of volatility complete with sharp price spikes on the order of 1500 pips!
This means that you cannot leave a position completely open or you will risk the value of your entire account. However, it's possible that such a volatile market will make it impossible to execute a stop loss at the exact point you want or at the point spread you expect. Danger, Will Robinson, danger.
On the other hand there is no guarantee that another spike will happen in the short term future. You can certainly place a short sell order way up in the stratosphere and if you are lucky enough to grab it you might be lucky. It's also possible the spike will be much higher than a previous spike and you'll get burned. Alternately, the spike price could represent a new trading range and not offer you a large profit. There are no certainties - only risks and potential rewards.
Shall we play a game?
Trailing Stop Strikes
Well, whether it is a small correction or not I have no idea, but the USDJPY has gone down enough to remove me from the market. So, my profits have been pocketed and I need to look for opportunities to get back in.
The same is true for my AUDUSD holdings.
I'm starting to look into the USDCAD, in the long term, but there is always the risk that the US dollar will take a dump when the Tuesday interest rate news comes out. It would be hard to imagine that we could get to parity, or that we could stay there for long, but there is always the chance that the war in Iraq will push us there. I see an incredible load of debt being heaped on the USA combined with an inevitable drop in spending when the war ends.
On a different note, I find myself sitting on the sidelines. I don't like being on the sideslines, but I don't want to keep throwing money at a market to see if I can a place where it will stick. That costs too much. Maybe I'll investigate some carry trade ideas. For example, the EURTRY is appealing, though very risky.
The same is true for my AUDUSD holdings.
I'm starting to look into the USDCAD, in the long term, but there is always the risk that the US dollar will take a dump when the Tuesday interest rate news comes out. It would be hard to imagine that we could get to parity, or that we could stay there for long, but there is always the chance that the war in Iraq will push us there. I see an incredible load of debt being heaped on the USA combined with an inevitable drop in spending when the war ends.
On a different note, I find myself sitting on the sidelines. I don't like being on the sideslines, but I don't want to keep throwing money at a market to see if I can a place where it will stick. That costs too much. Maybe I'll investigate some carry trade ideas. For example, the EURTRY is appealing, though very risky.
Riding the USDJPY Train
Well, imagine my surprise to wake up to a hugely profitable swing in the USDJPY.
It's too bad that I wasn't awake during the action. I could have increased my position on the way through and grabbed stupendous gains from it. Anyway, I cannot complain, as I've added almost 10% to my account.
Isn't it great when you accomplish great things in your sleep?
Of course, I should note that I did have some losses on this pair during it's downtown nearly a week ago.
It's too bad that I wasn't awake during the action. I could have increased my position on the way through and grabbed stupendous gains from it. Anyway, I cannot complain, as I've added almost 10% to my account.
Isn't it great when you accomplish great things in your sleep?
Of course, I should note that I did have some losses on this pair during it's downtown nearly a week ago.
Minimal Participation
Sure, you want to have as much capital as possible involved in an upswing, but it's painful having a stake while the market slides.
Unfortunately, you have to keep dipping in your toe. At the apparent end of a long slide, or when a correction appears to run its course, it's time to dip in that toe. What happens when you end up tossing your coins into the fray and the market rejects your advances?
All you can do is repeat the same. On a downturn, open up a new position. On an upturn, release the last toehold and climb down a notch. At some point, perhaps in a day, or in a week, assuming the overall trend does not reverse, you'll have to catch and ride an upswing. Heck, even if the overall trend does reverse you should still catch an upswing if you are patient.
Then, as I blogged about previously, during the upswing you want to maximize your involvement. You want to jump in, safely, as your locked in profits rise, to ensure that all the losses from toe dipping pale compared to the wins you eke out on the return. Winning a multiple of the amount lost will be worth it.
You have to play to win... but you certainly don't have to put a lot into it until you see that you have the upper hand.
Unfortunately, you have to keep dipping in your toe. At the apparent end of a long slide, or when a correction appears to run its course, it's time to dip in that toe. What happens when you end up tossing your coins into the fray and the market rejects your advances?
All you can do is repeat the same. On a downturn, open up a new position. On an upturn, release the last toehold and climb down a notch. At some point, perhaps in a day, or in a week, assuming the overall trend does not reverse, you'll have to catch and ride an upswing. Heck, even if the overall trend does reverse you should still catch an upswing if you are patient.
Then, as I blogged about previously, during the upswing you want to maximize your involvement. You want to jump in, safely, as your locked in profits rise, to ensure that all the losses from toe dipping pale compared to the wins you eke out on the return. Winning a multiple of the amount lost will be worth it.
You have to play to win... but you certainly don't have to put a lot into it until you see that you have the upper hand.
Riding the AUDUSD Upswing
ve been riding the recent AUDUSD increase.
Now, I have some competing issues on my mind. As the AUDUSD hits new highs I have to worry about corrections. However, if this instrument is going to continue rising, I'd hate to not maximize my participation. See my previous post about having to play to win.
Anyway, while a more experienced Forex trader might not have to "figure this out", I've finally stumbled on a strategy that I like.
As a current position moves into some level of profits I'll slap a trailing stop on that position. This locks in some quantity of profits, at my choice, that I can relax about no matter what happens in the market.
With that profit locked in, I can enter a new position and immediately set a (trailing) stop on that as well. This new position can have a total risk less than the locked in profit above though it doesn't have to. In any case, this lets me choose the risk level I'm taking.
If the new position gains enough, I can adjust the initial trailing stop, if desired, to lock in more profits, and then open up another position. This way I can ride an up trend with increasing participation while having any losses limited to a precise value on a single open position.
Of course, this can be modified, if I feel like being riskier, but since we are near recent highs I don't feel like taking larger bets.
Now, I have some competing issues on my mind. As the AUDUSD hits new highs I have to worry about corrections. However, if this instrument is going to continue rising, I'd hate to not maximize my participation. See my previous post about having to play to win.
Anyway, while a more experienced Forex trader might not have to "figure this out", I've finally stumbled on a strategy that I like.
As a current position moves into some level of profits I'll slap a trailing stop on that position. This locks in some quantity of profits, at my choice, that I can relax about no matter what happens in the market.
With that profit locked in, I can enter a new position and immediately set a (trailing) stop on that as well. This new position can have a total risk less than the locked in profit above though it doesn't have to. In any case, this lets me choose the risk level I'm taking.
If the new position gains enough, I can adjust the initial trailing stop, if desired, to lock in more profits, and then open up another position. This way I can ride an up trend with increasing participation while having any losses limited to a precise value on a single open position.
Of course, this can be modified, if I feel like being riskier, but since we are near recent highs I don't feel like taking larger bets.
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